How to Survive as the Second Son of a Mage Family - Chapter 551

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This chapter was translated by Lunox Team. To support us and help keep this series going, visit our website: LunoxScans.com
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How to Survive as the Second Son of a Magic Noble Family (551)

Silence flows. I looked at the yellow papers placed in front of each person in the candlelit conference room, pondered briefly, and added.

“If we’re being a bit greedy, it would be good to boycott fruits and dairy products as well.”

It’s natural for the government to focus on Pleroma. Pleroma certainly had their next plan. Until Nicolaus Ernst and Bavaria cut their organization in half.

I too had suspected why Pleroma wasn’t doing anything while I was under house arrest, but by this time it became certain. Seeing that there has been no response until now, more than three days since Easter evening, Pleroma has no intention of appearing immediately. I estimate that the reason their movements are delayed is because Pleroma is currently doing everything they can to recover and revise their plans. Even though we can’t peek into their brains so there’s no definitive answer, the hypothesis of ‘under recovery’ is the most rational.

Then, whether the government reactivates the advisory committee that was created but only has its framework remaining, or creates a talent group composed entirely of pro-imperial personnel, or establishes a separate Pleroma countermeasure team to prepare for the next attack—setting aside that they should have done this—from our perspective, there’s time to catch our breath regarding Pleroma.

Now there’s one more cause provider remaining. France.

France, which is waiting for the day to bring down Germany just as much as Pleroma is waiting for the day to devour power, is watching the continent. The Ministry of Magic missed foreign enemies while focusing on the Dead Sea documents. The Foreign Ministry succeeded in establishing good relations with Britain, but became complacent with the sense that they were ‘responding’ and missed the real enemy. Seeing trees instead of the forest is natural for someone inside the forest, but politicians are precisely those who shouldn’t do that. Politicians must be able to alternately view the forest and trees at the right time, and such people should lead governance.

I wouldn’t always succeed in seeing the forest either, but I could at least bring up topics they couldn’t extract from the water for whatever reason—I could at least refresh the subject.

I spoke to Abraham, who fixed his golden eyes glowing softly in the candlelight on me, and the officials watching me beside him.

“You said France is not communicating appropriately. Then rather than waiting for France to act, we should make France act. It’s time for appropriate prodding. However, there are limits to what the government can do.”

France and Germany’s relations had deteriorated due to the Franco-Prussian War, but since then they had been creating a peaceful era. This is evident when considering the most-favored-nation treatment currently maintained among European powers.

So—, when I was about to continue speaking, the person sitting right in front of Abraham opened his mouth.

“Count Ascanien is indeed Count Ascanien. I was startled, thinking you had forgotten about most-favored-nation relations.”

‘Startled’… What an expression. I checked his name through the status window and compared it with the person in charge in the government organizational chart I remembered. He wasn’t government-affiliated but imperial, the Chancellor of the Privy Council for Foreign Affairs from the Alvensleben family, which has traditionally produced Prussian politicians. Since the Privy Council is the Emperor’s advisory body, the advisory committee that Nicolaus Ernst belongs to is also under this. Strictly speaking, he has the same rank as Nicolaus Ernst.

Since there are limits to what the government can do, someone who isn’t the government must do the work. I was trying to say this. Saying there are limits to what the government can do presupposes that Germany and France are bound by most-favored-nation treatment. The other party also knows what I was trying to say. Chancellor of the Privy Council of Foreign Affairs Alvensleben held a pen in one hand and lightly spread the other while speaking.

“Even if we pass the burden to civilians, we must remember that our Germany and France are bound by most-favored-nation treatment. If we publish boycott articles in the Imperial Newspaper and various yellow papers, they will also realize that our government is encouraging such trends.”

“Yes. They will certainly be inwardly aware.”

“Our subjects should certainly be wary of France’s greedy preemptive strikes. Also, having antipathy toward France can be accepted as a form of patriotism by young people. But Count Ascanien, you should know that they are the ones who could threaten to terminate most-favored-nation treatment with us the moment things go wrong. The reparations issue is a very sensitive matter, so now is the time to be cautious in Germany’s response and handle all relations delicately. If so many countries get caught up in France’s pressure and cut most-favored-nation treatment with us, it would be a diplomatic disaster. Isolation. We would lose the opportunity to reasonably export all of Germany’s advanced technologies and machinery. It’s problematic not just because it would end with exports, but because it would ultimately be proof that we lost the nation’s dignity and power.”

Chancellor of the Privy Council Alvensleben spoke with a persuasive expression. There was no change in my expression. When I just listened silently, the Chancellor touched on the core issue.

“Above all, why should we provoke France?”

The Chancellor waited for my answer, but when no words flowed in the conference room, he opened his mouth.

“France is currently keeping silent on their own. Didn’t you think that they lack judgment and are buying us time? Just as the Ministry of Magic and the magical academic world are studying the Ain Peshka manuscript for anti-Pleroma plans, while France remains silent not knowing the timing, we are establishing anti-Pleroma strategies and building appropriate countermeasures against their claims.”

By this point, I knew what he was trying to say. Chancellor of the Privy Council Alvensleben judged me as a hot-blooded young man who had intruded into the meeting, which wasn’t entirely incomprehensible. However, my response would differ depending on what he said—if he made rational arguments, I could set aside issues like him viewing me as an unwelcome guest, but if his arguments lacked rationality no matter how I judged them, there would be no way to agree with his opinion… I thought this way and reached a conclusion.

I politely nodded once and answered.

“First, if the benefits that European countries gain from trading with France are greater than the benefits from trading with Germany, publishing boycott articles in newspapers would be problematic.”

Literally, if European countries are gaining great profits from trade with France and those profits are greater than the profits from trade with Germany, in ultimatum-like situations, each country would choose France over Germany. To avoid such a checkmate, we should refrain from provoking France’s anger with boycott articles and such.

I immediately continued speaking.

“However, I don’t think those benefits would be greater than the benefits from trading with Germany. Especially at a time when the entire continent is accelerating industrial development.”

There are roughly three ways to retaliate against France.

First, military retaliation. We can’t recklessly choose this option, so we eliminate it.

Second, economic retaliation.

Third, cultural retaliation. The third is closer to civilian-led retaliation, and compared to the previous two methods, the external effects are slow and the degree of impact is relatively weak from the myopic view of politicians responsible for national governance. Since we need to move French politicians who are firmly entrenched, we eliminate this.

Then what remains? Only economic retaliation.

How can we retaliate? The economic response favored in this era is tariff adjustment, but there’s a problem here. Britain, Germany, France, Austria-Hungary, Italy, and other European countries are connected by most-favored-nation treatment. Although the clauses of most-favored-nation treatment in this period vary slightly by country and don’t always guarantee the best tariffs, in France’s case, they are guaranteed.

For example, if we drastically raise tariffs on French wine enough to severely impact French farms regarding wine imports, we must also raise tariffs on British wine to the same rate. If we only raise tariffs on French wine without doing so, it would break most-favored-nation treatment. Since the majority of imported wine entering Germany originates from France, the impact on Britain when wine tariffs are raised would be relatively minimal, but the fact that a German-French dispute would cause ripples to unrelated countries doesn’t change. If such tariff wars expand, there’s a possibility that Europe’s entire economy could shake unstably for some time.

No foreign country would welcome provocations that disrupt their citizens’ stability. The German ‘government’ would end up causing problems on the European continent in the economic sector as well, getting drawn into France’s provocations.

Then what if we abandon most-favored-nation treatment and only raise tariffs on French wine? It means we would respond to some degree to France’s war provocations. The proxy war using media now abandons being proxy. The conflict becomes clearer.

Fortunately, Germany, similar to the history I knew, had been an agricultural country for a long time compared to Britain and France, but relatively recently began explosive growth and started leading various industries.

To the gaze asking what grounds I had for thinking benefits from France would be smaller than benefits from Germany, I answered thus.

“Germany has advanced electrical and chemical industries compared to Britain and France, and thanks to its vast territory, self-sufficiency in resources and agricultural products is generally possible. German coal is important to the French steel industry, and German precision instruments are necessary for developing French industry overall. The French textile industry is also greatly influenced by Germany’s chemical industry. Not just France, but all European countries are like this, as Your Excellency the Chancellor surely knows. Therefore, there’s no need to worry about the issue of comparing benefits for European countries. Instead, what we can target is France’s benefits. What if France withdraws from Germany?”

What Chancellor of the Privy Council Alvensleben would say is obvious. Despite my words ending with a question, the Chancellor said something else.

“You don’t consider the possibility that France is drawing a bigger picture, Count Ascanien. France is indirectly boasting that it will distribute the profits from bringing down the German Empire to European countries. All the rudeness so far has been based on such signals. Because we are superior to them, if such a prosperous Germany were brought down, wouldn’t there be much to share? This is what they’re saying.”

“Your Excellency the Chancellor, I would like to address that matter shortly.”

I answered with a courteous face and tone, nodding my head.

“To continue, while there would be damage in numerous fields, the damage Germany would suffer wouldn’t be as much as the losses France would experience. France focuses on agricultural products and luxury goods in German trade. Wine and dairy products, perfume, fabrics, clothing, crafted goods. France imports items that are difficult to replace from Germany, but Germany imports relatively preference-based items from France. We are self-sufficient in basic agricultural products like wheat or import them from America and Russia, so France has no grounds to threaten to cut Germany’s lifeline. France has expanded trade with Britain and Belgium to reduce dependence on Germany, but it’s insufficient.”

I glanced sideways at the Foreign Minister nodding and continued speaking.

“We won’t be able to eat delicious wine and dairy products at cheap prices, but we can expand alternative wine imports from Italy and Portugal, or we could use this opportunity to revitalize the domestic economy. While there will be complaints about soaring prices of luxury fabrics and perfumes, it will be better than France, which must bear greater costs due to various industries that have begun to stagnate noticeably. In other words.”

I looked around the assembly and spoke to the patriotic politicians who had dedicated their pride to the ‘German Empire.’

“Germany is in a position to pressure France in trade. However, to provoke a trade ‘war,’ our companies with blocked exports would also suffer damage, and to antagonize France long-term would certainly strain the German economy as well. Above all, government-led trade wars are likely to be based on withdrawing most-favored-nation treatment.”

Therefore, the Empire will now intervene in the invisible hand through indirect means. It won’t immediately exclude chemical and machinery industries from trade with France. As thought earlier, that would stiffen our companies and our economy as well.

However, a warning is necessary.

How to do it is self-evident as mentioned. A method to make France act while revitalizing our economy instead of standing by with arms crossed—make them replace French luxury goods with domestic luxury goods. Let’s move step by step. We can gradually damage the French economy while making them anticipate the massive ebb tide to come, and at the same time revitalize domestic demand in the short term. Although French wine is delicious, Germany also consumes its own wine greatly. There are plenty of farms and factories making dairy products. Places making perfume and fountain pens are overflowing. Expensive fruits can also be replaced with German fruits.

“So we must make civilians move.”

I spoke in a low, confident tone while looking at these old men who seemed to be subtly agreeing. With Germany’s nationalism and statism of this period, it’s possible. The people were probably already reluctant about things with French labels. Making even those who weren’t sympathetic agree is the response Germany as a nation needs. Personally, I don’t want to advise them like this. My thoughts turn to the French orchard farmers who make a living exporting agricultural products to Germany, and I see them not as an unspecified mass of enemy citizens but as individuals and families, so my throat constricts whenever I’m not conscious of it while saying these words.

But that’s wrong. Such a politician, if done well, becomes a great person, but if done poorly, becomes indecisive enough to drive their own country to ruin. The latter shouldn’t be a politician. Balance must be maintained. If Germany collapses now, what remains is Bavaria as a papal puppet state and France—Terminus Yukairya—and Britain, Russia, and Austria-Hungary rejoicing at defeating their archenemy. Even if we accelerate self-destruction, we can only expect continental chaos and the rise of magical terrorist organizations. Even if Prussia seems to be doing nothing but foolish things, we can’t ignore its population and territory, and we can’t ignore the ability that brought it from barren sandy ground to a continental power position. Even if politicians of the current era seem incompetent, it’s actually because we’re seeing them up close—many people are like this. Even thinking politicians should see the forest, there aren’t many people in Germany or foreign countries who can do so. Bavaria versus Prussia is important, but the premise is that Prussia must exist first. Since Prussia must win once more in Prussia versus France, we must use this current structure where we can see victory with a little advice. Conversely, if you want to see a European continent dominated by Terminus Yukairya, you shouldn’t give them any advice.

I turned my head and asked the Foreign Minister on the opposite side.

“Your Excellency Minister, I would like to hear what responses the Foreign Ministry has made to France so far.”

The Foreign Ministry probably couldn’t actively question France about right and wrong. What the French Imperial Family did was only inform about Atropos’s existence and warn Germany; the rest was various economists, policy experts, and chancellors stoking fires through the French Imperial Newspaper. Since France was waiting for Germany’s checkmate and broke this news at this timing, it was natural conduct. The Minister answered quietly.

“We informed them that our government was already doing everything possible to respond to Atropos and summoned the French ambassador. Within the Foreign Ministry, we individually collected information about French trends. Do you need that information?”

“No. That would be troubling you. Your Excellency Chancellor, may I dare to continue answering Your Excellency’s concerns?”

“Since I brought you here to speak, there’s no need to attach the modifier ‘dare.'”

Abraham said something helpful for once. I thought he only knew how to glare and pick fights with ministers, but he does his part regarding planned matters. As Crown Prince, he does the minimum work he should do, which is why he remains without being demoted to prince.

Whatever the case, I had merely shown appropriate courtesy to Privy Council members who would receive the Emperor’s favor, and even if the other party refused, I intended to say what needed to be said in some way.

“Your Excellency Chancellor said Germany would be isolated by European countries. Do you think so because countries like Switzerland would side with France? However, even in Switzerland’s case, trade dependence on Germany is higher than dependence on France, so that situation won’t continue. The problem is Belgium. And Britain and Italy.”

These are countries that exchange more with France than Germany or exchange at the same level.

“We’re less worried about Britain since we agreed to share maritime trade routes and transfer chemical technology, but not Belgium. Italy also won’t be able to give up France due to luxury goods trade. Even so, Italy doesn’t have enough incentive to abandon friendly relations with Germany. In fact, with most European countries already having higher trade dependence on Germany, even if these two countries ally with France and abandon most-favored-nation treatment, there wouldn’t be major damage. Especially since we have no unique items or services obtainable only from trade with Belgium and Italy. The problem is that unlike Belgium, Italy is a major power, and to that extent, there’s a possibility of colluding with France over minor issues, so if we want to eliminate that possibility, then…”

I looked around the assembly and spoke with a slight tilt of my head.

“We could temporarily persuade companies to lower the prices of machinery we export to Italy or import Italian wine as a substitute for French wine.”

Lowering the prices of machinery exported to Italy doesn’t violate most-favored-nation principles. Most-favored-nation treatment is a matter between nations. Individual companies’ pricing isn’t bound by such principles.

For some reason, the Chancellor didn’t answer. Since he was just moving his lips, I quickly opened my mouth. If he starts refuting, it becomes tiresome.

“Then, regarding why we can’t welcome France’s current silence, I would like to present my personal thoughts. If we infer the reason France isn’t responding, they are pouring the oil of time onto European countries’ greed.”

“Hmm.”

The Finance Minister reacted for the first time. Knowing the reason for that reaction, I nodded and spoke.

“Because right now is a time when countries see the possibility of extracting money from Germany. Even though Bavaria greatly defeated Pleroma, there are still countries demanding contributions due to the existence of remaining Pleroma and Atropos, like Switzerland. In other words, even though Bavaria half-extinguished the fire set by France and Pleroma, France is waiting for time to rekindle the half-remaining fire to its original size. This is the reason for their silence.”

The reason France doesn’t communicate with Germany and remains passive is that they don’t want to conclude each country’s greed, and therefore don’t want to provide new information that would make countries revise their plans. I continued.

“France has the responsibility to express its next position to all neighboring countries regarding what it has been spreading. The moment France responds to Germany’s request, France will make some decision. Countries like Switzerland will see France’s position and change their own decisions. Such countries are everywhere. The problem is that if France doesn’t really want total war, it must eventually withdraw the stance it took. That becomes a signal. A signal that prevents neighboring countries from taking further stances.”

Now the ministers are nodding little by little.

“Therefore, France will want to continue keeping silent. They’ll drag out time as much as possible, then when they can no longer delay, they’ll only give responses unfavorable to Germany, and then when the situation is really expected to head toward bilateral catastrophe, they’ll withdraw and send peace signals. Since they didn’t know Germany would so successfully eliminate Pleroma, they’ll reassess our technological capabilities, and in that sense, we can’t be certain they’ll oppose us to the end. Their dragging out time is because Germany has the advantage in short-term warfare.”

“…”

“So it seems clear we have no need to give them time.”

No one spoke. The atmosphere became cold because Chancellor of the Privy Council Alvensleben kept his mouth shut and just stared into space. Abraham was looking down and just drinking, appearing thoughtless as if he had expected this.

“Ahem.”

The Vice Foreign Minister cleared his throat while watching the Crown Prince and Chancellor. Meanwhile, the Foreign Minister was scanning me for a long time. I looked at the Foreign Minister with puzzlement. When our eyes met, he started looking elsewhere, but there wasn’t particularly negative sentiment.

“Now.”

Abraham put down his wine glass and snapped his fingers.

“Explosive boycott movement of French imports, for Germany, for Germans… a German enterprise. Hmm.”

Abraham muttered while touching his temple as if imagining the title and the psychology of people drawn to it, then clasped both hands together. When he, who had been looking down, shifted his gaze, his eyes glowing orange in the candlelight turned eerily toward me. He looked at the people on both sides and tilted his head slightly, mechanically pulling up the corners of his mouth.

“Let’s see if France steps forward.”

* * *

Three days passed from then.

At 5 AM, I woke up from sleeping at the Wittelsbach mansion as usual, washed briefly, and went down to the first floor.

I unfolded a friend’s letter that arrived this morning. A servant greeted me with a short greeting. During this time, I had become quite friendly with one servant in his twenties whom I considered a peer, and I drank tea while chatting with him face to face.

Leonard was busy and couldn’t come to Berlin often, and even when he did, he didn’t stop by the mansion where I was staying. He was conscious of imperial surveillance. Instead, there were times when we met through Mimesis at the adjacent mansion with Cheringen, and I asked about Elias’s well-being, but Leonard told me nothing. Similar scenes unfolded whenever he looked after Elias in the novel too—he was indeed a thorough friend. Acting that way was right. What I could grasp was limited to things like—judging from the lack of great worry on his face, Elias seemed to be doing well without causing new incidents.

When conveying requirements from Victoria Lyceum, I spoke about Elias indirectly to Abraham. If I truly cared for him, I shouldn’t directly tell him to guarantee safety. Directly revealing what I want means exposing my weakness as is. Abraham already knows well that I cherish my friends, but there’s a considerable difference between knowing and me directly picking out one person to entrust to his care. I’m roughly calculating the day we can meet, so until then I can only pray for safety. Neither Leonard nor Elias would know I’m making such plans, but it was better they didn’t know.

Ulrike came to the mansion quite often compared to them, and as often as she stopped by here, she also stopped by Cheringen’s mansion next door. This was also to disperse imperial attention.

And I…

Still ate breakfast while making trivial jokes with the servant. I quickly filled my stomach with an unidentifiable egg-colored cake and tea, then opened the morning newspaper. French stories appear from page one.

[Berlin Railway Construction Company decides to return all French iron ore “Decision following public sentiment”]

[Bordeaux-Burgundy wine sales plummet 73% compared to last week… Reversal of ‘German’ wine]

[Even when offered, they turn away… Rotting champagne]

Creak―…

Just as I was about to shift my gaze to the main text, the sound of a carriage came from the distance. Looking outside through the gap in the curtains that hung wide across the window, I saw people wearing uniforms commonly seen in the Prussian Government getting out of a carriage. I closed the newspaper and stood up from my seat.

Good.

France, which had been consistently ignoring us, had made a move.

The fact that they reacted a bit early was a point worth remembering, but it was a success. It wasn’t difficult to predict that I would soon be taking that carriage to the government, so I straightened my clothes and went out to the central area of the manor before a servant could call for me. The morning sunlight slanted inward, illuminating the marble floor. I could see civil servants talking with the manor’s head servant in front of the doors that were wide open on both sides. A civil servant spotted me and greeted me politely.

“Lord Ascanien. The Foreign Minister has sent us.”

Standing before them, I conveyed my acknowledgment with a nod. They held up a letter stamped with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs seal toward my face and spoke without hesitation.

“France has expressed their intention to visit Germany. The Minister wishes to hold a strategy meeting.”

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This chapter was translated by Lunox Team. To support us and help keep this series going, visit our website: LunoxScans.com
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