Golden Spoon Investment Portfolio - Chapter 184

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This chapter was translated by Lunox Novels. To support us and help keep this series going, visit our website: LunoxScans.com
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184. Winter is coming.

Na Seong-mi set down the coffees she’d brought, one for each person, bowed respectfully to Seok-won seated at the head of the table, and quietly withdrew from the room.
With one leg crossed, Seok-won slowly surveyed the PI Department team leaders seated on either side of the table before speaking.

“I trust you’ve all noticed that the composite stock index has broken through the 1,000-point mark today.”

Kim Jung-sik, the first team leader, smiled and quickly responded.

“Of course. Just a few months ago, we were all despondent watching the market collapse so helplessly. But exactly as you predicted, it began its recovery in July, and now we’ve re-entered the four-digit range—it’s truly remarkable.”
“Indeed. Thanks to your advance positioning under the department head’s direction, we’ve been able to capture the full benefits of the index’s rise.”
“With such substantial profits across the board, I’d say we can look forward to impressive third and fourth quarter results.”
“It’s all thanks to the department head’s foresight.”

Choi Ho-geun and the other team leaders were all busy singing Seok-won’s praises.
In truth, it wasn’t mere flattery—Seok-won’s keen insight had genuinely allowed them to amplify their profits considerably.
Seok-won, who had been listening quietly with his hands clasped over his knees, spoke in a calm, measured tone.

“Starting tomorrow, I want each team to liquidate your holdings sequentially, with everything sold off by the first week of October.”
“…!”

The unexpected directive caught everyone off guard, their eyes widening in surprise.

‘I had a bad feeling when he suddenly called us in—I knew something like this was coming.’

Choi Ho-geun, who prided himself on understanding Seok-won better than the other team leaders, muttered inwardly.

‘What is it this time that he’s seeing that no one else can?’

Team Leader Choi Ho-geun regarded Seok-won with eyes filled with anticipation.
But unlike him, the other team leaders made no effort to hide their bewilderment.
Among them, Kim Jung-sik, the first team leader, carefully asked again, wondering if he’d misheard.

“Did you say to sell all our holdings?”
“That’s right.”

Seok-won nodded without the slightest hesitation.
Kim Jung-sik, the Team Lead momentarily at a loss for words, quickly leaned forward and spoke in a flustered tone.

“As you mentioned, with the expansion of foreign investment limits now in effect, capital is flooding into the market, and the prevailing sentiment is that we’re entering a sustained bull market driven by semiconductor boom expectations. Shouldn’t we actually be buying more stocks?”

The other two team leads, excluding Choi Ho-geun, nodded in agreement as if sharing the same thought.
Observing this, Seok-won spoke with a notably serious demeanor.

“If that were truly the case, we’d need to increase our bets aggressively.”

An Sun-hwan, the Investment Team Lead 2, adjusted his horn-rimmed glasses with his finger and asked.

“Are you saying you don’t believe this is a bull market, Department Head?”

At that, all the team leads’ gazes converged on Seok-won.
Their eyes gleamed with curiosity about what answer would come.
Seok-won lifted the teacup before him, took a sip, set it back down, and spoke with unwavering conviction.

“This rally is merely a temporary rebound caused by foreign capital that had been blocked from entering suddenly pouring in all at once due to the expanded investment limits.”

Faced with such a pessimistic outlook, An Sun-hwan, Team Lead 2, cautiously offered a counterargument.

“It’s undeniable that foreign capital inflows played an important role in the stock price rebound. However, fundamentally, corporate fundamentals are improving—exports are increasing significantly compared to the previous year, aren’t they?”

Kim Jung-sik, the Team Lead seated across from him, continued the discussion, placing emphasis on the stock price rise.

“I share the same view. Particularly with memory semiconductors emerging as a new flagship export product, everyone expects sustained price strength due to the explosive demand surge from Windows 95’s release. Based on that alone, I believe the upside is more open than the downside.”

To run the newly released Windows 95 operating system from Microsoft smoothly, 16MB of RAM was required—significantly more memory capacity than what had been used previously.
Consequently, expectations naturally grew that demand for memory semiconductors to support Windows 95 would explode exponentially.

‘No one knew back then that this would become a terrible trap.’

Seok-won, wearing a bittersweet smile inwardly, looked at the gathered team leads and asked.

“What if all those expectations are based on faulty judgment?”

At that, everyone blinked, their faces showing bewilderment.
While Choi Ho-geun couldn’t hide his puzzlement, Seok-won continued speaking.

“What do you think has been the biggest factor behind the semiconductor boom we’ve seen so far?”
“Isn’t it because the demand for memory semiconductors has increased due to the personal computer boom happening not just domestically, but worldwide?”

Choi Ho-geun, the Team 4 leader, answered immediately.

“That’s right. But what do you think would happen if PC demand declined contrary to expectations?”

At those words, not just Choi Ho-geun but all the attendees wore expressions as if he’d uttered complete nonsense.
Everyone was anticipating that PC demand would skyrocket with the internet craze combined with the Windows 95 launch.

“Do you know how much a computer costs these days?”

No one answered readily to the sudden question.
Seok-won, as if he’d anticipated this, opened the folder of documents he’d placed on the table.

“This is an assembled PC quote I personally obtained yesterday at Sewun Electronics Market.”

The team leaders, wearing bewildered expressions, all craned their necks in unison to peer at the quotation.

CPU: 586 Pentium-60
HDD: 560MB
FDD: 5.25″, 3.5″
RAM: 8MB
Keyboard: 103-key
Modem: Janet 336
CD-ROM: 4x speed
Multimedia: 16-bit MIDI sound card, microphone, TV tuner card
Price (VAT included, monitor separate): 1.57 million won

“Once you add in a 17-inch monitor, it easily surpasses 2 million won.”

Seok-won turned to Kim Jung-sik, the Team 1 leader seated to his left.

“How much does a fresh college graduate earn at our company?”
“I’m not entirely certain, but I’d estimate around 700,000 won a month.”

While not one of the top five conglomerates, the company still ranked within the top 50 of Korea’s business hierarchy, and as a securities firm known for competitive compensation, salaries were relatively generous.

“So you’d need to save up about three months’ worth of salary just to afford one. It’s not exactly an affordable luxury item.”
“Right. That’s true.”
“When I got my PC, the price was so high I had to buy it on installment.”

The team leaders murmured in agreement and nodded.

“No matter how new Windows 95 is, if a company buys it for office use, that’s one thing. But for ordinary people to casually replace or upgrade their PC—it’s a burden at that price point.”
“Ah….”

Only then did the team leaders grasp what I was driving at. They fell silent in thought before nodding in agreement with my words.

“Now that you mention it, that’s right.”
“It certainly won’t be easy to replace them quickly.”

Though PC adoption in households was expanding rapidly during this period, it wasn’t yet an essential item—a part of one’s body like the smartphones I’d relied on before returning to this time—that one couldn’t live without.

‘All you can really do is simple office work, PC communication, and gaming. Compared to the price, it’s more of an expensive luxury with limited practical use.’

Suddenly, I recalled old memories of swapping out multiple five-inch black floppy disks while playing games.
Back then, with my meager pocket money, a computer would have been an impossible dream—but Manager Oh had given me one, saying that an era would come when computers were essential. That’s how it became possible.

‘It was the cheapest model available, but thanks to it, I was able to learn about computers.’

Though when I first received it as a gift, I think I only played games every day.
Dismissing the fleeting thought, I straightened my posture and spoke again.

“Beyond that, I’m sure you’re all aware that not only domestic companies but also semiconductor manufacturers from Taiwan, Japan, and the United States are anticipating a surge in demand and competitively expanding their production facilities.”

A thought flashed through Choi Ho-geun’s mind, and his expression hardened.

“You’re predicting that memory semiconductor prices will fall due to oversupply.”

The other team leaders caught on to the implication and looked at him with startled eyes.
As expected, Choi Ho-geun had grasped the problem first, and I felt a satisfied smile form inwardly.
But I showed nothing outwardly, maintaining a serious demeanor as I continued.

“If things unfold as I predict, a harsh winter is about to descend upon the semiconductor industry.”

The faces of the team leaders sitting on the sofa grew increasingly grave.
Seok-won, observing this, identified yet another problem.

“Beyond that, there’s one more adverse factor that forces us to view the market’s future outlook pessimistically.”

Kim Jung-sik, the first team leader, swallowed hard before speaking.

“W-what is that?”
“The exchange rate.”

Seok-won glanced around at the team leaders, who were now listening intently.

“You’re all aware that the dollar-yen exchange rate, which had been gradually declining, has now fallen to 98.33 yen, correct?”

The team leaders nodded heavily.
Kim Jung-sik in particular, having placed yen short bets at Seok-won’s direction, was checking the dollar-yen exchange rate fluctuations hourly.

“You’re well aware that Japan is our greatest export competitor not only in semiconductors but also in automobiles, shipbuilding, and home appliances. But what happens if the yen weakens and we enter a period of yen depreciation?”
“Hmm… if the yen weakens, Japanese products become cheaper to export, which means Korean companies’ competitiveness would relatively decline.”

Kim Jung-sik, his voice low and grave, wore a darkened expression.
Seok-won turned his gaze toward An Sun-hwan, the second team leader, and posed a question.

“Under these circumstances, the fundamentals of the companies you cited as reasons for a bull market would be severely damaged, and exports would decline as well.”
“…It appears my judgment was mistaken.”

An Sun-hwan, the second team leader, replied with a rigid expression.

‘And that’s not all—there’s another time bomb that will send the stock market plummeting.’

Seok-won murmured inwardly, recalling an incident with Manager Oh from before his regression.

“Anyway, the most useless thing in this world is people who engage in politics!”

Manager Oh, who as usual was having his shoes polished while seated in his chair, crumpled the newspaper in his hand in frustration, prompting Seok-won to lift his head and speak.

“What’s wrong?”

Manager Oh pulled a cigarette from his pocket, placed it between his lips, and jerked his chin.

“Did you see this?”

I glanced at the crumpled newspaper before responding.

“Are you referring to the article about the former president’s slush fund?”
“That’s right! Five hundred billion—the bastard gorged himself obscenely!”

Manager Oh fumed as though someone had stolen his own money.
I exhaled a long sigh and applied shoe polish to a cloth with measured strokes, my expression turning bitter.

“A sum like that is something a man like me could never accumulate in a lifetime.”
“Damn those rotten bastards! It’s infuriating enough that they pocketed bribes through the back channels, but what really gets my blood boiling is how the stock market has collapsed because of this!”

Manager Oh exhaled white smoke through his nostrils, seething with indignation.
Listening to him, it seemed the market crash irritated him far more than the slush fund itself.

“What does a former president’s slush fund have to do with stocks? How did the market, which had surpassed 1,000, plummet again because of this incident?”
“What do you mean it has nothing to do with it? The stock market despises uncertainty above all else. With the political establishment in turmoil over the slush fund and prosecutors potentially conducting investigations that could turn everything upside down—who would dare invest in such an unsettling atmosphere?”

Manager Oh wedged a cigarette between his fingers, his face contorting with displeasure.

“The major players are already withdrawing their capital, afraid of getting caught in the crossfire. On top of that, the sudden semiconductor industry downturn and export contraction due to currency fluctuations mean even foreign investors are selling off their stocks. How could the market possibly improve?”

Manager Oh, exhausted from appeasing major investors all day, looked ready to collapse at any moment.

“That’s quite serious. Are you holding up alright, Manager Oh?”
“Ha ha.”

Manager Oh let out a hollow laugh before heaving a deep sigh.

“Don’t ask—it’s too painful.”
“…Of course.”

Recalling that conversation, I observed the team leaders, whose expressions remained heavy.

‘The former president’s slush fund scandal, which will soon explode, will become the catalyst for the market crash—but I can’t tell them that.’

Even if I did speak of it, they wouldn’t readily believe me. Moreover, the matter was politically too sensitive; one misstep could create problems down the road.

“For these reasons, I expect the market to face more headwinds than tailwinds going forward, and we’ve already secured substantial profits. From a risk management perspective, I believe we should realize our gains and then proceed with caution, observing market sentiment before making further trades.”

The team leaders exchanged meaningful glances, their expressions growing contemplative.
After a prolonged silence punctuated only by their searching looks, Choi Ho-geun spoke first.

“As you’ve said, we’ve already met our performance targets, so I believe operating conservatively for the time being wouldn’t be a bad approach.”

An Sun-hwan, the second team leader, adjusted his horn-rimmed glasses and added his support.

“I agree. Rather than squandering the profits we’ve worked so hard to accumulate, it’s better to take a measured pace and consolidate our position.”
“Yes, let’s proceed that way.”

Kim Jung-sik, the first team leader, also sensed the consensus shifting and voiced his agreement.
When the remaining third team leader concurred, Seok-won nodded and rendered his decision.

“Then I’ll take it that everyone agrees. Starting tomorrow, we’ll begin unwinding our positions.”
“Yes.”
“Understood.”

Thus, Seok-won and the Daehung Securities PI Team successfully navigated clear of the gathering storm clouds that would soon descend upon the domestic stock market with torrential force.

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This chapter was translated by Lunox Novels. To support us and help keep this series going, visit our website: LunoxScans.com
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