Golden Spoon Investment Portfolio - Chapter 103

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This chapter was translated by Lunox Novels. To support us and help keep this series going, visit our website: LunoxScans.com
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103. When everyone’s eyes are fixed in one direction, an unexpected variable always emerges.

January 17th, 1995. The Tokyo Stock Exchange in Chuo Ward, Tokyo.
The vast Trading Floor, waiting for the opening bell, was suffused with a tension so thick it felt suffocating.
More than a hundred traders gathered before their respective booths, their faces etched with grim determination as they monitored real-time earthquake updates streaming across television news broadcasts and Bloomberg terminals.
As aftershocks continued to ripple through the region and daylight broke, the damage reports trickling in were so catastrophic that jaws hung slack in disbelief.

“The Hanshin Expressway elevated section collapsed? How is that even possible…”
“Over three thousand dead and missing, and the Kobe port is so severely damaged it’ll be unusable for a long time, they’re saying.”
“Absolutely horrific.”

It was, quite literally, a catastrophe of unprecedented scale.
While watching the television footage of Kobe’s urban landscape reduced to complete rubble, the traders lamented the devastation even as their minds raced feverishly, calculating just how severely this earthquake would impact the markets.

“This is bad news for the market.”
“Damage alone will exceed hundreds of billions of yen—there’s no way this is positive.”
“Just the loss of Kobe port’s functionality will be a massive blow to exports.”
“Considering the casualties and property damage, insurance companies are going to get absolutely decimated.”

With the entire city of Kobe looking as though it had been carpet-bombed into complete devastation, it was as clear as day that insurance companies would face astronomical payouts in the coming months.
Just as the foreign exchange market had already collapsed into massive sell-offs, the stock market too would inevitably experience a massive crash—a predetermined future that everyone could see coming.
The thought of the tsunami of plummeting prices about to sweep across the market made everyone swallow hard.
In this atmosphere of mounting tension, the opening time finally arrived.
The moment the opening bell rang, the entire Trading Floor erupted into chaos as though a violent tempest had descended upon it.

“Mitsui Sumitomo Marine Fire Insurance—five thousand shares at market price, sell!”
“Taisho Life—ten thousand shares! Sell at 1,590 yen, no wait, 1,400 yen!”
“Tokyo Life—twenty-five thousand shares, sell!”

The traders thrust their arms skyward, their voices raw with shouting.
With telephone receivers pressed to their ears, they bellowed orders or barked sell commands with expressions of desperate urgency, and as traders tangled chaotically together, the Trading Floor transformed in an instant into a scene of pandemonium.
Beginning with insurance companies facing massive payouts, indiscriminate selling erupted across all sectors as investors frantically dumped whatever stocks they held.
In response, the massive price board mounted on one wall of the Trading Floor was instantly blanketed in green—the color signifying decline.

“Damn it. How far is this going to fall!”
“Already down five percent.”
“Dump everything at the lower limit!”

No matter how hard I tried to sell the stocks I held, buyers had completely vanished—sell orders flooded in from every direction.
As a result, the Nikkei Index plummeted over 300 points at the opening bell and continued widening its losses, spreading fear throughout the market.
Traders gripped their heads with both hands as the index fell relentlessly, their faces twisted in despair or hollow resignation as they stared helplessly at the price boards.

* * *

At that same moment, at Daeheung Securities Headquarters in Seoul.
In a personal office decorated in modern style befitting its owner’s taste, the tall Seok-won stood with his arms crossed, wearing a deep purple luxury necktie.
He monitored real-time Japanese market data flowing through the Bloomberg terminal installed on his desk while simultaneously speaking with Andrew in New York on speakerphone.

[The Nikkei Index has just broken through 18,700.]
“I’m watching it too.”

Seok-won spoke while keeping his gaze fixed on the Bloomberg screen.

“We shorted at 21,870, so we’re looking at over 14% profit.”
[That’s correct.]

Andrew’s voice came through brimming with excitement.

[The scale of damage from the earthquake continues to grow as time passes. It appears the decline will deepen further.]

Another massive jackpot had hit, yet Seok-won watched the Nikkei Index plummet steeply with an unexcited, composed expression, forming long dark candles on the chart.
As selling pressure upon selling pressure cascaded down with no support line to catch the fall, the market’s helpless collapse was terrifying to witness.
Everyone expected the Japanese market to crash even deeper following this nuclear-level shock, but my thinking was different.

‘Whenever everyone is looking in one direction, an unexpected variable always emerges from nowhere.’

As I thought this, I recalled something that had happened with Manager Oh before my regression.

“It’s done.”

Manager Oh, who as always was sitting on a plastic bathhouse chair wearing three-striped slippers, lowered the newspaper he’d been holding open with both hands at my words.
After glancing down at his polished shoes gleaming like mirrors, Manager Oh smiled cunningly and spoke.

“Look at you, kid. Your skills keep getting better, don’t they? At this rate, you’ll monopolize the entire Securities District and build your own building.”
“I’m not even dreaming of a building—I’d just be happy if we could renovate that old shop.”

At his playful words about my future as a building owner, I let out a dry laugh.

“And I’m married with children. What do you mean, kid? Do I still look like a child to you?”
“Listen here. Even if you live past sixty, you’ll always be a kid to me.”

Manager Oh habitually pulled out a cigarette, placed it between his lips, and teased with a slight grin.
Seok-won started to retort, but then realized he’d never won a single argument against Manager Oh, so he simply shook his head.

“Fine, fine. Call me whatever you like.”

Seok-won closed the shoe polish lid and pushed it to one side, then suddenly lifted his head as if remembering something.

“By the way, sir. Can I ask you something?”
“What’s on your mind?”

Manager Oh exhaled cigarette smoke as he replied.

“The Japanese stock market. Shouldn’t it have dropped after such a massive earthquake?”
“Normally, yes.”
“But then why is it rising even more than before the earthquake?”

By Seok-won’s logic, this made no sense.

“It’s because of the learning effect.”
“The learning effect?”

Manager Oh held the cigarette between his fingers and paused for a moment, searching his memory.

“Come to think of it, it’s already been sixteen years. You remember that big earthquake in Kobe, don’t you?”
“Yes.”
“The epicenter was right near Kobe, so the damage was catastrophic. If I recall correctly, there were over six thousand deaths.”
“That many people died?”
“Yes, it was a massive 7.3 magnitude quake.”

At those words, Seok-won shuddered.

“Wow… I can’t even imagine how terrifying that must have been.”
“That’s why you should be grateful South Korea hardly ever experiences earthquakes.”

Manager Oh, continuing his habitual lecturing, tapped ash from his cigarette into an empty paper cup stained with coffee residue as he went on.

“The loss of life was significant, but what proved far more devastating was the economic impact.”
“….”
“The commercial district was essentially obliterated, with property damage alone exceeding 10 trillion yen.”
“Wow. 10 trillion yen!”

The staggering figure made my eyes widen in shock.

“Exactly. And since Kobe was destroyed—a port that served as one of the two major maritime hubs for East Asian shipping alongside Hong Kong—the damage became even more catastrophic.”

Manager Oh watched me absorb the information, then posed a question with a hint of playfulness.

“Given such devastation, what do you think happened to the Japanese yen and stock market?”
“With damage that severe, investors would naturally have dumped Japanese assets, causing a massive crash.”
“That’s what happened initially.”
“…?”
“The yen, which had been trading below 95 to the dollar, suddenly surged past 103, and the Nikkei index plummeted over 4%.”

It was only natural for asset markets to panic when catastrophe struck.

“The way you’re telling this, it sounds like things took a different turn.”

Manager Oh chuckled and replied.

“Your instincts are sharpening.”
“I’ve known you for several years now. I can read between the lines.”
“Ha ha ha!”

Manager Oh burst into hearty laughter.
When we first met, I was merely a greenhorn with resolve but unmistakable inexperience.
Now, seeing how I’d matured—deflecting remarks with ease and composure—filled him with quiet pride.

“Right. Everyone thought like you and dumped the yen and Japanese stocks wholesale. The initial momentum did lean toward collapse, after all.”
“I probably would have done the same.”
“Beyond that, driven by greed to capitalize on the opportunity, many placed heavy bets on further decline. As I mentioned earlier, it was a time when everyone expected the yen and Japanese markets to crash. It was bold, but not reckless.”

I nodded in agreement with his assessment.
Manager Oh took a deep drag from his cigarette, exhaled slowly, and continued.

“But then something completely unexpected happened—a total reversal.”
“What kind of reversal?”

Seok-won leaned forward, his curiosity piqued.
I found myself absorbed in Manager Oh’s fascinating account as though watching a gripping film.

“The Nikkei, which had plummeted, reversed course and climbed in just a single day.”
“…!”
“And it wasn’t merely that the decline halted—it completely recovered everything it had lost over those two days.”

Seok-won’s expression betrayed his disbelief at something so improbable.

“How is that even possible?”
“Right? Incredible, isn’t it? But when you think about it, it was actually quite inevitable.”

Seok-won stared at Manager Oh with even greater bewilderment.

“Japan may be struggling through what’s now called the Lost Decade, but until recently it was still the world’s second-largest economy, standing shoulder to shoulder with the United States. Even with the bubble’s collapse dampening its momentum, that fundamental reality remained unchanged.”

Manager Oh tapped ash from his cigarette into an empty paper cup as he spoke.

“You’ve heard the saying—even a rich man can survive three years on his reserves?”
“Yes.”
“When the market began to collapse, the Japanese government immediately stepped in. The turning point came when they announced an emergency budget of over 3 trillion yen to begin disaster recovery efforts.”
“3 trillion yen? That’s enormous.”
“In other words, the Japanese government was essentially printing money to launch a massive reconstruction project worth over 30 trillion won. So what happens next?”
“Ah!”

Seok-won let out a small exclamation as understanding dawned.

“Construction companies and all the firms participating in the reconstruction project would be absolutely raking it in.”
“Exactly. With such a windfall pouring in, the market would have to rise. Anything else would be absurd.”

Seok-won nodded in agreement as he absorbed the explanation.

“Plus, to cover insurance payouts, Japanese firms repatriated the capital they’d invested abroad, which caused the yen—whose exchange rate had soared—to strengthen dramatically once more.”
“Wow. A reversal truly no one saw coming.”

Even now, hearing this story was quite astonishing for Seok-won, but for those who had actually engaged in stock trading back then, it must have felt like having the back of their head smashed in with a hammer.
A thought flashed through Seok-won’s mind, and he opened his eyes wide as he asked.

“Then the people who shorted the yen and Japanese stock market must have suffered massive losses?”
“Don’t even mention it.”

Manager Oh smiled bitterly and placed a cigarette between his lips.

“There were quite a few people who went bust and headed home from Yeouido that day.”
“Ah, then Manager Oh, were you…”
“What about me?”
“Were you perhaps on the losing side…”
“What do you want me to do about it?”

Watching Manager Oh pout like a child, Seok-won made an educated guess internally.
He lost a lot of money.
Seok-won naturally pulled himself out of the recollection and asked calmly.

“How far has the yen exchange rate fallen?”
[It’s just surpassed 104.6 yen.]

Considering the yen exchange rate had been below 95 yen just the day before, it was truly a staggering plunge.
Because they had anticipated the yen would fall further, panic selling was happening everywhere at this very moment.
Seok-won gazed at the yen exchange rate graph plummeting vertically on the Bloomberg terminal positioned in front of him and issued his command.

“Liquidate all positions immediately and start buying up yen!”
“What?!”

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This chapter was translated by Lunox Novels. To support us and help keep this series going, visit our website: LunoxScans.com
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